4 days to go before the soccer world cup starts! How do you think your team feels, based on its performance during tune-up games?
In the analytics below, I propose a model using two simple metrics to assess the mood of my top 10 teams:
- Performance for each tune-up game (win = 1, tie = 0, loss = -1): the higher the number is, the better the team should feel. Trend is important here: you want a team that has an upward trend. For instance, The US lost their first game, won their second and third game – that’s a good trend. France won their first game, tied their second one and lost their last one – not as good.
- The rank differential between the team assessed and their opponent: the lower the difference, the more difficult the game. For instance, Brazil (#1 in FIFA rank) won its preparation game against Tanzania today. Tanzania’s FIFA rank is #108. Brazil rank differential on this game is 107 (108-1). Last week, England (#8 in FIFA rank) won its preparation game against Mexico. Mexico FIFA rank is #17. England rank differential on this game is 9 (17-8). If we stick to FIFA’s ranks as assessment of team’s levels, Brazil had an easier game than England: they both won, but against two very different teams rank-wise.
I’m starting today with my top 5, I’ll give you the next 5 tomorrow) – Let me know what you think! Who said mood can’t be explained with analytics? 🙂
In case you can’t see the above screenshots, please see the direct image links below:
- France’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
- Brazil’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
- Argentina’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
- Netherland’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
- Italy’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
PS: My analysis is an experiment so please feel free to let me know if you have other ways of assessing these issues. Also, I predict that Argentina will be World Champion this year (check out my bracket here) – what’s your prediction?