Soccer World Cup 2010: What mood is your team in?

4 days to go before the soccer world cup starts!   How do you think your team feels, based on its performance during tune-up games?

In the analytics below, I propose a model using two simple metrics to assess the mood of my top 10 teams:

  • Performance for each tune-up game (win = 1, tie = 0, loss = -1): the higher the number is, the better the team should feel.  Trend is important here: you want a team that has an upward trend.  For instance, The US lost their first game, won their second and third game – that’s a good trend.  France won their first game, tied their second one and lost their last one – not as good.
  • The rank differential between the team assessed and their opponent: the lower the difference, the more difficult the game.  For instance,  Brazil (#1 in FIFA rank) won its preparation game against Tanzania today.  Tanzania’s FIFA rank is #108.  Brazil rank differential on this game is 107 (108-1).  Last week, England (#8 in FIFA rank) won its preparation game against Mexico.  Mexico FIFA rank is #17.  England rank differential on this game is 9 (17-8).  If we stick to FIFA’s ranks as assessment of team’s levels, Brazil had an easier game than England: they both won, but against two very different teams rank-wise.

I’m starting today with my top 5, I’ll give you the next 5 tomorrow) – Let me know what you think! Who said mood can’t be explained with analytics?  🙂

In case you can’t see the above screenshots, please see the direct image links below: 

  1. France’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
  2. Brazil’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
  3. Argentina’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
  4. Netherland’s Mood is low (see analytics here)
  5. Italy’s Mood is low (see analytics here)

Best,

Bruno

@brunoaziza

PS: My analysis is an experiment so please feel free to let me know if you have other ways of assessing these issues.  Also, I predict that Argentina will be World Champion this year (check out my bracket here) – what’s your prediction?

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2 thoughts on “Soccer World Cup 2010: What mood is your team in?

  1. […] start.    A couple of days ago, I introduced a “mood analytic” to help figure out the mood that my top 10 teams should be in, based on their performance during the friendly […]

  2. […] rank difference between the team assessed and their opponent (More on “Mood Analytics” here).  My analytics indicate that Spain has had more challenging opponents collectively (Germany and […]

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